UK elections: then and now

There is a strong consensus in the market, despite recent variations in polling data, that the current Conservative government and policies are very likely to remain in place after the election on 8 June. We believe the market consensus is correct, and so we do not expect a significant market impact as a result of the election – this would probably only occur if there was a shock result.

Shortly after the election, negotiations over the UK’s departure from the European Union will begin, and these could have a significant impact over the longer term. While the market will refocus on these negotiations after the election, we expect there to be little impact for some time – while there will be jostling by politicians over different proposals and potential deals, no firm conclusions are expected early on in the process, and so we expect this to be a slow burn.

Paul Lambert – Insight, a BNY Mellon company

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