Could the UK meet its EU Waterloo?

The European Union is by far and away the UK’s dominant trading partner. In 2014 the EU accounted for 44.6% of UK exports of goods and services and 53.2% of UK imports of goods and services.[1] EU member states account for four of the top-five export destinations of the UK and three of the top five import origins.

These figures sound impressive but we have never seen a good argument either way with definitive data that would give a clear indication of the economic pros and cons of the UK leaving the EU. Our hope is the upcoming referendum will concentrate minds and allow that debate to take place.

Our belief is it will be shown that the UK is better off in the EU. That said, if the UK did exit the EU we don’t necessarily think that would be calamitous, as we are not economically over-reliant on Europe. Either way, we are not too worried about the upcoming referendum. Our position is to wait and see.

James Harries – Newton, A BNY Mellon company

[1] London School of Economics, Should the UK stay or go? The economic consequences of Britain leaving the EU, 24 May 2015

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